Held for the first time in the Malvern Town Hall, the Lighter Footprints annual energy transition event featuring Simon Holmes à Court and Ric Brazzale was a big success. The 400 attendees were treated to an inviting array of community organisation stalls, an engaging and authoritative presentation from Simon, and an interesting discussion between Simon and Ric before heading home feeling educated and empowered.
You can view Simon’s slide set on our resources page here and the online Agenda with links and information here. There are summaries on nuclear, clean energy, climate action, cost of living, and climate and health.
Welcoming atmosphere
The entrance area featured vibrant representation from Doctors for the Environment, ACF Boroondara, Rewilding Stonnington, Electrify Boroondara, Kooyong Climate Change Alliance, KooyongKoot Alliance, Chisholm Climate Action Network, Beyond Coal and Gas McNamara, Back2Nettleton Friends, No Incinerator Geelong, Australian Religious Response to Climate Change , Asian Australians for Climate Solutions and Lighter Footprints.
Lighter Footprints was delighted with the support of local community groups focussed on protecting nature, our health and the climate
As participants met with other Kooyong residents and mulled about before and after the event, petitions were signed, corflutes were collected and new connections were made.
A great crowd at the community group stalls both before and after the event – so many ways to work together to protect nature and build deep connections with each other
Simon’s address
Following a warm welcome and acknowledgement of country from Lighter Footprints convenor Jenny Smithers, Simon Holmes à Court took the microphone and commented that this is the seventh time he has given this annual update and the fifteenth year he has been connected with the work of Lighter Footprints.
First, the bad news.
Emissions and temperatures continue to climb – we have to radically reduce our fossil fuel usage, fast
As expected, Simon’s address did not begin with good news. Referencing clear graphs and data, Simon explained the alarming 2024 global temperature and emissions records. He outlined that, according to Climate Action Tracker, we are on track for 2.7 degrees of warming by 2100.
Right now we are heading towards 2.7 degrees warming – with more frequent and intense fires, floods and heatwaves, food shortages with some areas of the world becoming unliveable. This is why sticking to AEMO’s plan of moving to clean energy and storage is so important.
Our government in Australia says we’re on the way to meeting our targets but, if we take the land use sector out of the graphs, Australia is lagging.
“So if we take out the land management sector, which almost every other country in the world does, we’re looking at a reduction of only 22.8%, over that period. And the vast majority of that is coming from electricity.”
Simon Holmes à Court
Australia is one of the few countries in the world that uses landclearing in emissions calculations. If caculating like other countries do, emissions are not falling very fast
Reasons to be more cheerful
Simon’s address promptly pivoted to the more positive story of the rapid growth of wind and solar which overtook fossil fuels as the dominant source of energy in Europe last year. An incredible rate of battery growth is also happening across the globe, as the cost of big batteries has fallen to one-fifth of what they were six years ago. Any constraint in growth is at the demand side as China has double the production capacity required at this point.
Solar and wind are very fast growing technologies compared to other energy sources
With over 50 per cent of their new vehicle sales now electric, China has also hit peak oil. Simon says “China is taking the transition away from oil very seriously.”
Positive milestones include China’s use of oil no longer growing, the robust global growth of EVs (mostly China) and Australia value adding it’s lithium exports
Australia’s clean energy story, however, is mixed. EV sales in Australia only rose by about 5 per cent last year (compared with 24 per cent globally). And, although Australian households with rooftop solar hit 4 million last year, and storage in the grid rose considerably, the overall rate of renewable energy roll out was disappointing in 2024. Investors are seeking policy certainty. Labor’s Capacity Investment Scheme is welcome, but the Coalition’s lack of climate policy means we are at a sliding door moment for both our climate and energy futures.
The nuclear question?
Simon has a deep interest in nuclear technology, with roadtrips, visits, and onging discussions with key players, even an MIT course. Australia has been through many Parliamentary and State reviews on nuclear.
Even though he is actually a fanboy of nuclear energy as a technology, Simon clearly and methodically explained why nuclear energy will fail to meet Australia’s clean energy needs. Interestingly, Simon reminded the audience that there have been eight reviews of nuclear power since 2005. It’s been on the table – “this is something that has been looked at very closely”.
After quite some months the LNP released a plan for 13.5GW of capacity in seven reactor sites – but most States have legislated anti nuclear bans and in Queensland it would take a referendum. Referendums are very problematic in Australia.
Time before construction should have been included
Overall, nuclear is too expensive and will take far too long (likely more than 20 years) to build.
In the five attempts to build nuclear this century in North America and Western Europe, one plant was cancelled, and for the other four, “the average time for construction is 21 years from announcement to completion.”
The LNP claim a 2035-2037 start date. But this is only possible by using only the construction time in the calculations, and ignoring the time that would have to be taken before construction.
Simon said that when you list all things that needed to be done before construction (even if some of them can be done in parallel), “going through all of these things before we reach commercial operation, there’s lots and lots of evidence to say it takes about 20 years.” However Simon noted the opinion of the Chair of the Australian Energy Regulator: “She thinks more like 25 years”.
Frontier took the construction only rather than preparation and construction time when preparing their modelling, among other errors. Hinkley C first power will come after 24 years with the prices blowing out to $90bn AUD
Simon Holmes à Court’s Submission to the House Select Inquiry on Nuclear Energy 2024
Simon’s submission stated (5:34) that, based on a “set of fantastical assumptions” (bipartisan support at all levels of government, no community opposition, support over seven parliamentary terms and smooth passage through environmental approvals) and proceeding as if there was a “warm supply chain” (like South Korea’s 30 nuclear projects) the earliest project would reach commercial operation by 2044. Simon also critiqued CSIRO’s costings as too reliant on nth of a kind. Simon reminded the Inquiry at we are well into the energy transition, and that AEMO predicts that only “a dozen years from now”, we would be at 90% renewables.
“Our electricity demand is set to double by 2045, and nuclear has no realistic proposition of contributing to that growth”
Simon Holmes à Court: Submission to the House Select Inquiry on Nuclear Energy 2024
The Guardian’s reporting on the Select Inquiry proceedings headline’s Simon’s statement that nuclear has “not a hope in hell” of replacing coal power by 2040.
Even if we built as France did in its heyday, with solid bipartisanship and community and military support, we could not reach commercial operation by 2044, leaving a huge emissions gap
“Shoehorning even more than a trivial amount of nuclear means pausing or significantly slowing our renewables transition. “
Simon Holmes à Court: Submission to the House Select Inquiry on Nuclear Energy 2024
A massive supply gap
Waiting for the nuclear buildout “would result in a gap of 3,700 TWh to fill, that is an equivalent of 18 years of current generation.” This would be filled by extending the life of the “aged and increasingly unreliable existing generators” for an extra 20 years, and “adding a huge amount of gas we don’t have”.
Shoehorning nuclear into our energy transition really would mean stopping it, leaving the resulting gap to be filled by the aging coal generators (leaving the taxpayer over a barrel for incentives and repairs) and a large amount of gas expansion.
If we wait for nuclear, the Climate Change Authority reports that the gap will be filled with coal and gas, resulting in 2 billion extra tonnes of climate pollution.
Nuclear is too expensive
The other major objection is the cost. CSIRO’s GenCost report firmly states that nuclear is the most expensive technology, but Simon has stated that CSIRO’s figures may still be too optimistic, and that nuclear costs keep increasing (an “unlearning” curve) whereas wind and especially solar and battery costs are still falling down the learning curve.
Wind and solar is leapfrogging nuclear – with storage it can deliver fast build, reliable power at a quarter of the cost or even lower – why risk nuclear?
As a technology, nuclear is losing global generation share, with delays, cancellations and very high costs of remediation.
“In the six years to 2024, Australia built the equivalent of six nuclear power stations”
Simon Holmes à Court
Sliding doors
Simon reminded us that we are at a real sliding doors moment this election. Either we continue on with AEMO’s well researched and costed plan for a clean energy transition, backed up by a variety of levels of storage, or we go nuclear on the tax payer dime, stalling renewables leaving us short till the mid 40’s, with the taxpayer filling the gap with extra payments to the aging coal generators and subsidising massive plans for domestic gas usage for generation.
Australia has built the equivalent of six nuclear reactors in the last six years, no fuss, very quickly and affordably, no toxic waste problem and not much community reaction compared to overturning our deeply felt opposition to nuclear
The Grid
Victoria still has the dirtiest power, but that will come down as we retire the next coal generator.
Victoria’s grid continues to decarbonise as coal is being replaced with renewables and storage, and crossover days are becoming increasingly common
“This is good news from the Australian Energy Market Commission. They tell us that the energy prices, sectors are expected to stabilise. They’re actually saying down 17% over the next decade.”
Simon Holmes à Court
Crossover is coming soon
Increasingly we have days where there is more renewables than coal in Australia. Three years ago at this forum, Simon showed us one crossover day. Then the next year, eight days. “Last year it was 29 days.” Simon expects us to cross over two to three years from now.
Simon noted something “really interesting” that, energy demand in Australia, after many years of falling, “energy demand has started to grow. And there are multiple reasons for that. So economic activity transitions to electric vehicles. And data centres, some of the major causes of that.”
Rooftop solar was a bright spot last year
Despite the renewables investment strike last year, rooftop solar remains popular. “It’s very stable and there a growing, interest in household investment in solar”, with the four millionth system put on last year. “So, an otherwise disappointing year for development, but, another strong year for households.”
Simon said that it would be possible to reach the 82% target with another jump up in renewables build out – fortunately the project pipeline is recovering after last year’s strike.
Reaching the 82% renewables target for 2030 is possible with a big jump up in wind and solar build out – nearly tripling in the next few years. This is why 2025 is so critical for climate action. However, “winning slowly is the same as losing.”
Discussion with Ric Brazzale
After a question from the moderator prompting the raising of hands, it was discovered that over 80 per cent of the audience had rooftop solar but, as expected, only 10-15 per cent had household batteries. This real-life polling highlighted the prohibitive costs of home batteries.
Battery prices
“I think I think it’s fair enough that we need a good explanation for why home battery prices are not falling and how”, Simon said given that large scale batteries now cost about one fifth of what they were six or seven years ago. “So something’s going on.”
Simon and Ric looked at the economics of scale when considering the price of household batteries, which have not fallen much despite the steep drop in utility storage costs
When asked about why household batteries are still very expensive Simon explained that batteries are in high demand by the energy industry. “You see that 24% increase. 80% of batteries of batteries produced end up in cars. And of the remainder, that goes into energy electricity storage, stationary storage, most of that is going into large scale. So small scale batteries are being a bit of a rounding error. And Australia is a rounding error on that.”
Simon and Ric discussed the need for policies that will increase demand for small scale batteries to push prices down. It is expected that both major parties will release battery rebate schemes in the near future. Offering a mere $25 million for apartment solar hardly cuts it, it would be better to look at something like the renewable energy certificate scheme for batteries.
“I’m hearing the same thing that both both major parties, have been developing a household battery rebate scheme. I think they’re playing a game of chicken at the moment. Who will come up with the policy first announce it, and then the other party gets a chance to tweak it and make it sound even more attractive.”
Simon Holmes à Court
Feed in tariffs and negative pricing
Ric Brazzale asked about a new minimum feed in tariff “of effectively zero” and the implication of negative pricing. Simon explored the question of negative demand, and inflexible coal generators, where the coal generators are paying to keep running, as a way of helping to keep pressure on them to close. They have done a trial of trying to turn off during the middle of the day in NSW – it’s possible, “but it does put strain on the units.”
“I’m in that situation, where sometimes it costs me $30 for the day to export. There’s technical solutions to solve that, but, every time I feel I’m just putting a little bit more stress on Yallourn to get this whole power station to close down and I think that’s my contribution.”
Simon Holmes à Court
“Coal is ultimately losing that battle largely because of age’, Simon said. Negative pricing puts “a market signal on the coal generators and it’s time to move on.”
“The Essential Services Commission … were making the case to homeowners with solar that you consume more of your own electricity and consider charging up electric appliances. So it does beg the question, a really, a big question on electrification.”
Ric Brazzale
Household electrification
Given that households can save “in order of three of four thousand dollars a year” by shifting to an EV, electric heating and cooling and electric hot water Simon said, then why not look further than the “few million dollars” in two or three postcodes for electrification trials.
Saul Griffith has been consulting with the designer of HECS, and it would be possible for the Commonwealth, or even the States to consider a Rewiring Australia HECS-style electrification scheme.
“I think it’s time that we move beyond trials and started doing some big, some bigger projects. We should we should be able to do household electrification the same way we do HECS. You go out and get an education over 3 or 4 years, and you get the next 15 years or so to pay for it in your salary. You should be able to electrify your house and then pay it off over 15 years.”
Simon Holmes à Court
Coalition and the future of the renewables
When asked about the risks for the shift to renewables from returning to a Coalition government, Simon didn’t pull any punches.
“I think it’s a real sliding doors moment where we’re facing. Dutton said he opposed the 2030 target. And he I think media came out later and said he really meant to say 2035. But too, too late. He’s come out that he advises the 2030 target and, and steadfastly opposes having a target for 2035.
“Any serious look at the nuclear plan states what I showed before that we would have to see a life extension to coal generators, which comes at great expense.”
Simon Holmes à Court
Simon also talked about the risks to investors of the current policy uncertainty, and lack of support from any future Liberal government. “Do you, do you make the big investment, or not? Anyone for the last 12 months or so would have been mad to make billions of dollars worth of investments based on the policy uncertainty we’ve had. So it does have a chilling effect on investment.”
Capacity Investment Scheme
Ric and Simon talked about value and risks of the Capacity Investment Scheme.
“What is carrying projects through at the moment, quite significantly, is the Capacity Investment Scheme. This is a Commonwealth Government scheme to underwrite projects. But it’s a double edged sword in that projects have become dependent on that. And if that scheme was to be removed, then we would see renewables grind to a halt.”
Simon Holmes à Court
Simon remarked on the way Liberal governments can just mothball projects. Angus Taylor’s stalled UNGI scheme just sat there: “I don’t think it underwrote a single project. Certainly not a single renewable energy project. It just sat there while bureaucrats didn’t look at applications. People would apply to it, and the parties would just sit there and nothing got built.”
“We’ve sort of had those and there’s been some views that maybe the, a coalition government might just retain the capacity vessels, but just include gas in it.”
Ric Brazzale
2035 Targets
Ric Brazzale asked Simon what he thought the 2035 target would be, and what would happen under a Coalition government. Simon started out by reminding people it was Tony Abbott not Morrison who signed us up to Paris “which implicitly requires net zero.” Australia has not met the deadline for 2035 for the next mandated NDC, “I suspect that, Labor didn’t want to go into the election being exposed and having a target when the coalition was not going to have one. Australia has promised that it will go to the next, climate conference with one.”
Simon expects the level of the target, if Labor remains in power will depend on the election result, a better result will give more wriggle room for a higher target. The Climate Council, scientists and the Climate Change Authority put a responsible emissions reduction target at 70%, whereas Labor may put in “something with a six in the front of it”.
“Well, I’m actually reminded that, the Victorian government’s got a target of, I think, a 75 to 80% emission reductions by 2035. New South Wales, 70% emission reduction. So you’ve got about 55% of the country essentially with 70% or better. But the big problem is, as some people refer to the petro state in the West, where it is really holding federal Labor back because of concerns about losing seats there.”
Ric Brazzale
Simon said that the Premier in WA, Roger Cook, “has quite openly come out and said that their emissions trajectory is an increase, not a decrease” because of their massive resource sector, which is “a gift to the world”. And they should “get a leave pass”.
I’m originally from WA, and I do go back. You know, once or twice a year and WA is another country. I’m in discussions around, emissions and climate change and they’re not what we’re used to on the East Coast. And it’s part of, I think, you know, the significant part of it being a one newspaper town, where the newspaper owner is also an owner of significant gas interests and, you know, any anyone who stands up against gas, pays a political price.
Questions from the audience
Also at the household level, the audience was keen to understand why the minimum solar feed in tariff was now close to zero. Simon explained that we now have more energy than demand when rooftop solar is booming because inflexible coal generators can’t switch off. Although it is frustrating, Simon reassured us that our excess solar is sending a market signal to increase storage capacity and get coal out of the grid.
Answers to a myriad of questions about Australia’s 2035 emissions targets, vehicle to grid charging, reasons for rising power bills, China’s coal, gas policies, home electrification, how to help renters, and the tanking of Tesla were all keenly absorbed by audience members.
Simon and Ric asked questions upvoted on Sli.do, presented by Lynn Frankes and David Strang. Sarah Hegarty guided us through next steps – events, and ways to help get quality information about the Candidates’ climate policies into the hands of voters.
Both Ric Brazzale and Simon Holmes à Court were warmly thanked for their time and expertise. Sarah Hegarty of Lighter Footprints reminded attendees that although Australia’s clean energy transition is well underway, the message of the evening was that consistent government policies are needed to progress this.
Bundles – letterdropping is a Lighter Footprints superpower – thanks so much everyone
The upcoming election is therefore pivotal. Lighter Footprints aims to help voters make a well-informed choice about candidates and their climate credentials..
Working with our community
The array of stalls at the back and sides of the hall gave the attendees an opportunity to learn and connect with other community members with a passion for caring for our planet.
It was so good to meet volunteers working right across other local climate groups in Kooyong and Chisholm
Many people find that getting their hands in the ground gives them a sense of hope for our future. There were plenty of options to link in with others. Rewilding Stonnington has created wildlife gardens at Tooronga and Prahran stations, helps people plant their nature strips so that they are truly nature strips and has other projects underway. Back to Nettleton a revegetation group on Gardiners creek had a very appealing display with a collection of plants on their table.
ACF Boroondara was there reminding us we need to think about protecting nature when voting and across the hall the Australian Religious Response to Climate Change’s bright and bold banner urged us to Protect Creation. A sentiment that the adjoining Beyond Gas Network shared.
Fence signs work to shift the vote. Get yours today for renewables, climate or your favourite climate candidate
Electrify Boroondara on the opposite side of the hall had all the information needed to start, continue or complete your journey to electrifying your home, car and bike, being more energy efficient and saving money. Nearby Doctors for the Environment were promoting their message that for healthy people we need a healthy planet.
The attendance of Mayor of Boroondara Sophie Torney and councillors Mick Nolan and Wes Gault was noted and appreciated by all.
Audience members were able to browse local environment groups stall, picking up information, stickers and placards. We are grateful for the support of Mayor Sophie Torney and Councillors
A big thankyou from Lighter Footprints to all the stall holders who attended and helped make the event a true community event.